CIEL - Climate Impact Equity Lens | Climate Change Gets Personal

What does CIEL reveal?

CIEL considers a future in which nothing is done to cut greenhouse gas emissions and our climate is profoundly changed, and compares it to a future in which everything possible is done to stop climate change. If that high-emissions future comes to pass, CIEL asks, what climate-related damages will each person in the world suffer? What will each person gain by not paying for emissions reductions? And how do these two values compare?

If a person's damages are greater than her savings (net losses) in a given year, they are marked on the CIEL graph above and to the left of the red break-even line. If a person's damages are less than her savings (net gains) in a given year, her marker is below and to the right of the break-even line. Whether we think of ourselves, and those we care about, as "winners" or "losers" from climate change inevitably colors our perception of the urgency of greenhouse gas emissions cuts.

Who wins? Who loses?

Who are the winners and who are the losers? Not everyone would be affected in the same way by a failure to stop climate change. At first, there are large numbers of people on both sides of the line; some are net gainers and some net losers. But the balance shifts over time. If emissions continue to grow at today's pace, by the end of this century very few people will experience net gains from climate change.

Two main characteristics distinguish net losers from net gainers. First, some people are more vulnerable to climate damages (their income comes from an economic sector that relies heavily on the existing climate, or is sensitive to extreme weather events; they live close to sea level or the coastline; water is already scarce in their region today). Second, the avoided cost of reducing emissions varies by region (due to different patterns of energy use) and by income level (the poorer you are, the larger your savings as a share of your income).

Some are more vulnerable than others

Today, a large share of world population is already vulnerable to climate change in one or more ways: 7 percent of world population lives at an elevation less than 5 meters above sea level and 37 percent live within 100 km of the coast; 35 percent of world employment is in agriculture; and 29 percent of the world population lives in countries that are classified as "water scarce" or "water stressed."

As temperatures grow warmer, sea levels rise, and historical weather patterns change, the share of world population especially vulnerable to climate change will grow, and more people will suffer net losses. Given that current scientific findings project a strong likelihood of catastrophic damages, it is all but certain that a continued rise in greenhouse gases will result in devastating economic losses for the vast majority.

CIEL can't predict the future

It is impossible to accurately predict a person's future, and CIEL doesn't try to. Here's what CIEL can and cannot do:

CIEL CAN:

•  Show expected patterns and trends in individual climate damages and emissions reduction costs.
•  Estimate an individual's likely chronic damages in each decade from now until 2200. Chronic damages are the average level of damages over the course of the decade.
•  Give a sense of whether damages and savings are big or small, and whether their net value is negative (a net cost) or positive (a net benefit).
•  Give a ballpark measurement of the economic damages from climate change.
•  Illustrate the idea – so often left out of economic analysis – that every policy action has winners and losers. No one should expect to get the average net cost or benefit.

The rest is up to you

CIEL is not a crystal ball. It's a tool designed to help concerned global citizens better imagine a future in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. The rest is up to you. What's hidden in the average damage and emissions reduction costs for your region? Who will gain or lose from climate change over the next decades? How many more decades until most people in your local area are on the losing side? And, perhaps most important, when representatives from all of our nations are negotiating over our climate future, are they thinking about averages or about people?

Most people are net gainers from climate change today, and some will continue to gain even after the turn of the next century. The more short-sighted decision makers are (caring only about immediate impacts or, at best, the next few decades), the more important it is for the net losers from climate change to have a prominent seat at the international negotiating table. If only the voices of net winners are heard, climate policy could fail.