CIEL publications
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SEI-CIEL for the Caribbean: The Climate Impact Equity Lens |
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The CIEL Backgrounder: Understanding the Climate Impact Equity Lens Elizabeth A. Stanton and Ramón Bueno To provide insight into the wide range of outcomes that climate change will have on individuals, the Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) calculates net gains and losses from a global failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions, viewed not as global or national averages, but instead for individuals. The purpose of the tool is to illustrate both the severity and the diversity of expected impacts from climate change. This backgrounder gives a basic introduction to CIEL tool, written in plain language, and also includes a more technical methodology for the CIEL model. Download PDF |
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Real People, Real Impacts: The Climate Impact Equity Lens Elizabeth A. Stanton, Ramón Bueno, and Marion Davis The Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) is a new tool for calculating net impacts from climate change in a way that highlights important differences in the distribution of costs and benefits. CIEL looks at climate impacts for real people instead of regional averages by comparing an individual's climate damages in a given year to her savings from not reducing emissions. Using CIEL can help us think about whether we are net winners (savings greater than costs) or net losers (costs greater than savings) today, and how that is likely to change over time. As policymakers negotiate the future of our climate, it is absolutely vital that they have in mind not just the potential impacts on a few "average" people, but the wide diversity of effects that will be felt by every person around the world. The policy report examines discusses this wide range of climate impacts, and includes a special case study on the Caribbean. Download Report PDF Download Policy Brief PDF |
Other recent publications related to CIEL:
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Development without Carbon: Climate and the Global Economy through the 21st Century Elizabeth A. Stanton Economic development and the eradication of energy poverty are increasingly seen as key components in a comprehensive strategy to prevent dangerous climate change, along with emission reductions and adaptation measures. But most climate economics models used to guide policymakers assume very little economic growth in the poorest countries. This report reviews the literature regarding the connection between energy, poverty, and emissions mitigation; sets out principles for an equitable climate policy; and explores three scenarios for future economic growth and emissions. It also includes a case study showing the impact of these three scenarios on Latin America and the Caribbean. External Link |
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Energy-Water-Climate Planning for Development without Carbon in Latin America and the Caribbean Marisa Escobar, Francisco Flores, and Victoria Clark Energy is essential for development, but given the urgent need to mitigate climate change, developing nations are under pressure to keep their carbon emissions low. This leaves them with three options: abandon development; ignore climate concerns; or take a third path: finding energy sources that emit little or no carbon. This report focuses on the third option, which we call "development without carbon" (DWC), looking at the viability of hydroelectric power as a low-carbon energy source for Latin America and the Caribbean in a changing climate. Hydropower supplies 46% of the region's electricity, with great untapped potential, but changes in the water supply due to climate change, competing uses, and population growth could thwart further development plans. External Link |
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Climate Economics: The State of the Art Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth A. Stanton Economic analysis has become increasingly central to the climate policy debate, but the models and assumptions of climate economics often lag far behind the latest developments in this fast-moving field. This report offers an in-depth review of new developments in climate economics and science since the Stern Review (2006) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (2007), with more than 500 citations. Drawing on this review, the authors also make several recommendations for aligning climate economics with climate science. Download PDF |
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CRED v.1.3 Technical Report Frank Ackerman, Elizabeth A. Stanton, and Ramón Bueno Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) is an integrated assessment model, with a central focus on the global distribution of climate damages and climate policy costs. It is designed to estimate both the best pace of investment in mitigation, and the best distribution of the cost of that investment to regions of the world, with the goal of informing global climate negotiations and help break the stalemate between developed and developing countries. Version 1.3 of the CRED model was completed in June 2011. This technical report describes the CRED v.1.3 methodology in detail. Download PDF Report |
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CRED: A new model of climate and development Frank Ackerman, Elizabeth A. Stanton, and Ramón Bueno This paper, published in Ecological Economics, describes a new model, Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED), which is designed to analyze the economics of climate and development choices. Its principal innovations are the treatment of global equity, calculation of the optimum interregional flows of resources, and use of McKinsey marginal abatement cost curves to project the cost of mitigation. The unconstrained, optimal climate policy in CRED involves very large capital flows from high-income to developing countries, to an extent that might be considered politically unrealistic. Under more realistic constraints, climate outcomes are generally worse; climate stabilization requires either moderate capital flows to developing countries, or a very low discount rate. In CRED, more equitable scenarios have better climate outcomes; the challenge of climate policy is to persuade high-income countries to accept the need for both international equity and climate protection. External Link |
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Comparing climate strategies: Economic optimization versus equitable burden-sharing Frank Ackerman, Ramón Bueno, Sivan Kartha, and Eric Kemp-Benedict Climate policy addresses a global problem, with costs and benefits distributed unevenly around the world. Questions of efficiency and equity are central to the allocation of costs; they are typically handled either by modeling optimal policies based on economic efficiency, or by setting standards that embody principles of equity. This analysis employs the Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) integrated assessment model to assess the optimal international allocation of effort. The authors compare CRED scenarios to the results of an equity-oriented burden-sharing framework, Greenhouse Development Rights (GDRs), which allocates effort to countries based on their responsibility (emissions) and capacity (income). Download PDF |
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Use of McKinsey abatement cost curves for climate economics modeling Frank Ackerman and Ramón Bueno Integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate economics require projections of the future costs of greenhouse gas abatement. International consulting firm McKinsey & Company has developed global estimates of marginal abatement cost curves, based on data on the costs of numerous emission-reducing technologies. This article describes the use of the McKinsey data in an IAM, the Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) model, including adjustments made to the McKinsey curves. The results are broadly comparable to abatement cost estimates from MIT's EPPA model, although lower than those from some other IAMs. Download PDF |